THERE IS NO-OFFSEASON

NFL Draft week is finally here as the masses head to Wisconsin for this year’s festivities. Pro Days are all done, private workouts are wrapping up, and fantasy managers are gearing up to learn where this year’s group of rookies will play the 2025 season. Landing spot and draft capital are two major pieces of the equation when it comes to determining rookie values. While the DLF Expert Rookie Rankings are the best in the business, those rankings were formulated without two extremely important pieces of information. There’s a balancing act between trusting pre-draft valuations with the events that occur next week in Green Bay. 

An obvious example of this is Travis Hunter, who has been climbing our rookie rankings all the way up to six overall in 1QB leagues. Not long ago, when some signs were pointing to him focusing on defensive back in the pros, he was outside of the top 12 picks. Now he’s starting to become a premium first round pick. I personally believe that Hunter will be the best wide receiver in this draft class. Whether he plays defensively as well is another consideration, but he is most valuable to his future NFL team, and himself, as a wide receiver. It sounds like the Browns are clamoring to take Hunter, and they reportedly view him as a receiver first. If that’s the case, he should be a top four pick, I’d take him after Ashton Jeanty. 

Speaking of Jeanty, the running back position is going to be fascinating to watch next week. This is a deep and loaded group of running backs, and we saw how crucial a stud running back can be to a team with Super Bowl hopes and dreams. Will this recent trend cause NFL decision-makers to value backs higher than they have in past years? As for fantasy value, landing spot and draft capital is extremely important for running backs in particular. There needs to be a path to volume early on in an RB’s career for him to be worth an early draft pick in rookie drafts. Oftentimes, a lower-ranked pre-draft running back can skyrocket up the rankings because of a landing spot. Look out for teams like the Cowboys, Broncos, Chargers, Giants, and Bears, who all have carries to give to a rookie in the backfield. 

On the veteran side of the NFL, the biggest story of the week was Derek Carr’s new shoulder injury. Ian Rapoport reported Friday that Carr is “dealing with a shoulder injury that threatens his availability for this season.” If the Saints weren’t in the market to take a quarterback in the draft, or even sign a veteran like Aaron Rodgers, they absolutely are now. Carr’s long and myriad injury history has hampered the Saints for years, and will now have an impact on their 2025 season. It’s a blow for Carr’s managers in superflex leagues, but at least the story is coming out before rookie drafts start up in earnest. 

Before the draft and after, DLF will be the number one source for rookie information and changing values post-draft. Rookie drafts are the absolute best part of dynasty leagues, and we’re here to make sure you’re the most prepared manager in your league.

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When DLF’s ADP for the month of March dropped, Javonte Williams saw one of the most extreme jumps in value. In February, his ADP was 184 overall in one-quarterback leagues. In March, he jumped up over 50 spots to 133.67 overall. What changed in that time? Williams signed a one-year, $3 million contract with the Dallas Cowboys. 

Today, Williams seems to have an easy path to a massive workload in Big D. Rico Dowdle is no longer on the team, leaving behind Deuce Vaughn and Malik Davis returning to Dallas. The Cowboys also signed Miles Sanders, who is unlikely to ever live up to his career year numbers in 2022. Williams is the most talented running back on the team, that’s for sure, but for how long? 

The Cowboys are widely considered a team that needs to add a rookie running back in this year’s NFL Draft. In fact, they may even have the opportunity to draft Jeanty in the first round. The Cowboys have the 12th pick in the draft. If there is no movement ahead of them, the Raiders (6), Bears (10) and maybe the Patriots (4) are the only teams that would likely consider taking Jeanty. If he falls to 12, it’s hard to picture Jerry Jones passing up on a dynamic playmaker at running back in Jeanty. Even if Jeanty isn’t there, there’s plenty of other opportunities for the Cowboys to add a high-end running back on day two.

This week could be the final time to trade away Javonte Williams for any significant value. Even if he does play a major role in the Cowboys offense this season, Williams is a constant injury risk and has not been able to prove he can handle a full workload at any point of his career. Even in college, he split time significantly with Michael Carter. There’s some hype and excitement about his prospects in Dallas, see if you can cash in on that before Jerry Jones adds more competition to the backfield in Green Bay next week. 

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DYNASTY RUNNING BACK DANGER RANKINGS:
SAFE TIER

The NFL draft is rapidly approaching, and all anyone can talk about is this running back class. It has the rare combination of elite prospects, solid day-two options, and intriguing late-round fliers that allows it to be compared to the legendary 2017 class. These RBs also enter the league at an important time because many of the best backs are starting to get long in the tooth as NFL general managers and dynasty fantasy managers search for the next great crop of rushers.

With all the new talent set to enter the league soon, let’s look at the NFL’s current depth charts and assess the current backfields in danger of being usurped by younger talent in this year’s draft class and assess some value for the future.

A team unlikely to draft a running back means their current starter would rank low on this “danger scale,” while a team almost certain to draft a running back means their current back is very dangerous to own right now. We’ll go in reverse order, meaning these are some of the “safer” backs to own in dynasty leagues. Remember, this is not a ranking of the value of these backs, only their danger level. In short, the earlier you see a player’s name on this list, the less likely they are to lose value at the end of this month.

32) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET

A true league winner in 2024, Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 31.52 PPR points per game over the last four weeks of the season. He finished the year with 1,412 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns to go along with 52 receptions for 517 receiving yards and four more scores.

Gibbs is my dynasty RB1 and he’s incredibly insulated in this Detroit offense that seems committed to the Sonic and Knuckles duo of him and David Montgomery who was extended through the 2027 season.

It’s hard to always predict what the Lions will do on draft night, but one thing I’m confident of is they will not be taking a RB in the 2025 draft. Gibbs has shown he has fantasy-breaking upside with or without Montgomery in the lineup and that should continue for the foreseeable future.

31) Bijan Robinson, RB ATL

The other player who I’d entertain an argument for as the dynasty RB1 is Bijan Robinson who is fresh off of season with 365 touches, 1,887 scrimmage yards, and 15 touchdowns. Robinson was billed as a generational running back in the 2023 class and he’s lived up the expectations so far in his career.

Similar to Gibbs and Montgomery, the presence of Tyler Allgeier actually shields Bijan from the Falcons selecting another running back in the NFL draft. While Allgeier might siphon off 6 or 7 touches a game, he’s a known commodity that won’t impact Bijan too much over the course of a season.

Plus, Bijan Robinson is really good and the Falcons used the 8th overall pick on him so selecting another back just two years later would be insane.