THERE IS NO OFF-SEASON

It was a busy week of NFL action with signings, holdouts, minicamps and video games. Let’s dive right in, starting with Aaron Rodgers, who has finally signed a deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s a one-year, $13.6 million deal for the one-time Super Bowl Champion, who has already arrived at Steelers minicamp. Rodgers and the Steelers were both stuck with no other options, so this move was inevitable, but it’s finally on paper and Steelers fans can know who their quarterback will be for the 2025 season. For dynasty, Rodgers remains a QB2 in superflex leagues, and really should only be on teams that plan on competing this season. I expect this to finally be his last season, unless he really turns it around. Even if he doesn’t, he’s an upgrade over Mason Rudolph, which should be good news for DK Metcalf and whoever else plans on catching footballs for the Steelers this season. 

JK Dobbins has finally found a home, and it’s one that may irk managers who have already had their rookie drafts. He has signed a one year deal with Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos. RJ Harvey managers around the world let out a collective gasp of aggravation when they read this news. Harvey was a second-round pick by the Broncos, and it was assumed that he would only be competing for touches in a backfield with Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin. Enter Dobbins, a second-round pick himself, coming off  his most productive season since his rookie season in 2020. Dobbins was finally healthy, and set career-highs in attempts, yards, receptions and receiving yards. He isn’t expected to start over Harvey, but he’ll certainly cut into his workload for 2025. I think it will be very close to a 50/50 split between them when it comes to touches, and Dobbins could even end up being the better fantasy option for this year. It’s a pretty big blow to Harvey’s value, and may push him to the brink of falling out of the first round of later rookie drafts. 

Nick Chubb finally found a new home, and he’s following the same path a fellow Ohian running back forged a few years ago. He’ll join Joe Mixon in the backfield for the Houston Texans on a one-year deal worth $2.5 million, up to $5 million. The Browns reportedly were in negotiations with Chubb, but they couldn’t agree on a salary, forcing Chubb to go south. Each of the last two seasons, Chubb has seen more action in the medical room than he has seen on the field. I expect him to play more of a RB2 role behind Joe Mixon, but this is certainly a blow to his potential volume. As long as Chubb is healthy, this move likely pushes Dameon Pierce into dynasty irrelevance. 

With players returning to the field, contract disputes start to be pushed to the forefront. Terry McLaurin seems to be the most concerning player right now for dynasty, as he’s seeking an extension with the Commanders. He didn’t report for mandatory mini-camp and will be subject to fines from the organization. He’s entering the final year of a three-year extension he signed in 2022, but wants long-term security. Meanwhile, Bills RB James Cook did report to minicamp, but he is hoping for a new deal as well. Jonnu Smith, Trey Hendrickson and TJ Watt are also waiting for new contracts from their teams. Frankly, compared to previous seasons, the contract situations around the league seem, thankfully, minimal. 

In injury news, Anthony Richardson is once again dealing with a shoulder injury and missed mini-camp this week. He reportedly expects to be ready to go for training camp, but he’s also getting a second opinion from his surgeon. Anyway, it’s bad news for a player that really couldn’t afford any more bad news. The Colts signed Daniel Jones and he now has the inside track to winning the starting job, even if he didn’t before this injury. Jones may end up being a better option for the fantasy relevance of the Colts wide receivers, and for Tyler Warren, but that’s about it. If Richardson doesn’t play, this team could be in a race to the bottom for Arch Manning next year. 

Finally, on the lightest note possible, Saquon Barkley and his epic reverse hurdle will don the Madden video game cover this year. With this announcement every year comes the Madden Curse discussion. Obviously, it’s a myth that has been totally debunked, but why can’t we have some fun with a stupid narrative? Curse believers have another feather in their cap with last year’s cover model, Christian McCaffrey. What else could you call his 2024 season other than cursed? His Achilles recovery took much longer than expected, and he even needed to go to Germany to meet with a specialist. When he finally did return, he only played in four games, earning 348 scrimmage yards and zero touchdowns. His season then ended with a PCL injury. The Madden Curse had laid dormant for years, hopefully for Saquon Barkley managers CMC didn’t bring it back last year. 

Misinformation season is here and we need to parse through the lies to find the information that is actually relevant to our dynasty teams. Luckily DLF subscribers have this newsletter. Taking it a step further, Ken Kelly is digging through all of the headlines on the Dynasty Fantasy Football Player News page and ignoring the minutiae, bringing you the info that actually pertains to your dynasty leagues! Of course, the DLF Rookie Rankings and DLF Expert Rankings are constantly being updated with all of the latest information so you can best parse through the noise and win the dynasty off-season!

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The dynasty community loves a post-hype sleeper. Last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba made the turnaround dynasty managers clamor for. After a horrible rookie season, 2023’s number one rookie wide receiver turned it around in his sophomore season, scoring 103.2 more points to finish as the WR9 in PPR leagues. Dynasty managers who weren't patient with JSN are kicking themselves while the ones who bought the lottery ticket are doing dances in the street. Smith-Njigba’s former teammate is in a similar spot this off-season. Can Marvin Harrison Jr. be the next post-hype sleeper in dynasty fantasy football?

Harrison went off for 130 yards and two touchdowns in week two, finishing as the WR1 for the week. Dynasty managers probably assumed that this would be a regular occurrence for the rookie WR1, but he’d only finish as a top 12 fantasy WR one more time for the entire season. He wrapped up his rookie season as the WR30 in PPR, only catching 62 balls for 885 yards and (an impressive) eight touchdowns. Along with his touchdown total, his yards per reception were also impressive. With 14.3 yards per reception, he finished tenth in that stat amongst players with 85 or more targets. It was ugly; Harrison was mostly limited to downfield production, while the volume of targets and receptions went to Trey McBride. 

The DLF Expert Rankings place Marvin Harrison Jr. as the 17th overall player in 1QB leagues, the 12th wide receiver off the board. Harrison’s ADP is 20th and WR13, after reaching a peak of sixth overall during last season. That is a massive fall off for him after one season, but it is still a very premium pick. At this time last year, Smith-Njigba’s ADP was much lower at 57.5 overall. He also had a clearer path to turning his career around last year. The aging Tyler Lockett was a roadblock for JSN in his rookie year, and in his sophomore year, he totally overtook him on the depth chart.

Harrison was basically an every-down receiver for the Cardinals last year, and there isn’t any indication that McBride will yield any of his targets for him. I’m a big believer in Harrison’s talent, but if the Cardinals don’t diversify his route tree, dynasty managers will be in big trouble. I can’t advocate buying low on Harrison when his price is still as high as it is.

DYNASTY ARCHETYPES: TIGHT END

As a dynasty manager, imagine having the ability to accurately predict the future performance of a dynasty asset, based on the past…

In this four-part series I’ll be exploring Dynasty Archetypes: a method of predicting future player fantasy production, based upon grouping players with similar traits, usage and output. By understanding a player projection or expected journey based upon the results of similar player types, it is easier to calculate the range of outcomes of the asset and facilitate the optimal team build.

In the previous article, I outlined the different archetypes at wide receiver, with the final positional review outlining tight end – a traditionally high-risk and shallow position, a diverse and fluid landscape with significant injury risk. The tight end archetypes used in this article are simple, with the key driver focusing on the percentage of offensive snaps taken from the slot position within the offense (slot rate). The parameters for the tight end archetypes are: 0-20% for ‘in-line’, 20-40% for ‘balanced’ and 40%+ for ‘slot’ tight end archetype.

Tight End Archetypes

The in-line tight end archetype consists of players who run the majority of their routes from the alignment immediately next to the offensive line, on the line of scrimmage. Players from this archetype have to be excellent blockers, due to the nature of the alignment, facing off against defensive ends and linebackers in both run and potentially pass blocking. In-line tight ends carry a higher injury risk, as involved in collisions with often much bigger players around the line of scrimmage.

The balanced archetype consists of players who are flexible, splitting time as a blocker and receiver, with usage in the slot alignment. The archetype is extremely valuable to a team, as they can be used as an every-down player. The slot archetype consists of players with a significant amount of slot usage, lining up as a receiver and often facing off against linebackers, smaller safeties or nickel cornerbacks – avoiding big contact with defensive linemen. The slot archetype is an excellent receiving option, with this as their strongest trait, vital for accumulating fantasy points. The detailed breakdown of each wide receiver archetype can be found in the original article created last year.

2024 Veteran Review

Where the 2024 wide receiver results shifted from slot to balanced, the tight end position did the opposite – with fantasy production dominated by the slot archetype. From the TE1 group, 66.6% were from the slot archetype, with the remainder from the balanced archetype – no TE1 was part of the in-line archetype grouping. The increase in slot archetype was a significant shift from 2023, where only 25% of the top 12 came from this grouping. 2024 also saw a reduction in the in-line archetype, with two players finishing as a TE1 last year and now zero players appearing this season.