THERE IS NO OFF-SEASON

This week kicked off with a shocking player-for-player trade between the Steelers and the Dolphins. This trade came out of nowhere as we hardly see trades occur in the middle of the summer, especially one player (or players in this case) for another. So, the Dolphins sent Jalen Ramsey and Jonnu Smith to the Steelers in exchange for Minkah Fitzpatrick. For dynasty fantasy football, the most important piece of this trade is Jonnu Smith (sorry IDP players). Smith had the best season of his career in Miami last season, but was holding out this off-season. He’ll get a new deal in Pittsburgh, but he’ll also join a packed tight end room with Pat Freiermuth and 2023 third-round pick Darnell Washington. This has to be considered a downgrade for both Freiermuth and Smith, but I still expect Freiermuth to be Rodgers’s primary tight end target. There will be a hit to his dynasty ADP and value, but he may get into the range where he becomes a good buy-low after this trade. For our full analysis of Jonnu Smith’s trade to Pittsburgh, check out Ken Kelly’s look into the Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact. 

Later in the week, the Dolphins made an even more shocking trade, acquiring Darren Waller from the New York Giants! Waller was retired, and is likely on your dynasty waiver wires. He’s absolutely worth a pickup as the Dolphins are left with a massive hole at tight end. Assuming he’s stayed in shape and can get up to speed in the next month, he should be their primary pass-catcher at the position. He’s a rare off-season must-add player off the waiver wire the next time your league runs them. Ken Kelly once again has you covered on the dynasty fantasy football impact of the Darren Waller trade. 

Speaking of contract holdouts, the other fantasy-relevant player in a dispute with their team is Terry McLaurin. Adam Schefter told the Pat McAfee Show that “there is quite a gap” between the Commanders and Terry McLaurin on contract demands. He continued that the sides “have not made any progress. It’s too bad because McLaurin is coming off a career season, and a second year with Jayden Daniels should only produce even better results. I still expect the two sides to find a middle ground and agree to something prior to the season, but it’s starting to get into the danger zone. Veterans are expected to report to Commanders’ training camp in Ashburn, VA, on July 23, just under three weeks from today. If he doesn’t report on that date, then the concern will really begin to grow. 

Dynasty League Football continues to pump out updated rookie profiles every single day, with Cam Skattebo, Quinne Ewers, and Ollie Gordon scheduled to come out over the next couple of days. We’re also going team-by-team, highlighting our picks for ADP risers, fallers, and longshots over the 2025 season, look out for our Vikings write-up on Saturday and the Patriots predictions on Monday. Finally, our navigating rookie draft series will kick off this weekend, with the DLF experts breaking down rookie draft strategies for the first four rounds of your drafts, breaking down the early, middle, and late-round picks. The 2025 dynasty fantasy football season is fast approaching, so take some time over this holiday weekend (if you’re stateside) and take a look at your teams, enter them into the DLF League Analyzer, and send out some trade offers for some dynasty fireworks!

One of the most discussed veteran running backs this off-season has been Travis Etienne with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Liam Coen is the new head coach in Duval, and he is the offensive coordinator who facilitated Bucky Irving’s breakout season last year. So, this year, everyone is trying to figure out which running back on the Jaguars will be this year’s Irving. Etienne seems like he’ll get the primary shot to be that back. Demetrius Harvey of the Florida Times-Union said Etienne is expected to remain the team’s top back, but he could take “a bit of a backseat as a rusher as the team’s running game and his receiving ability evolve.” He believes that Bhayshul Tuten, Tank Bigsby, and LeQuint Allen will compete for touches behind Etienne, but the split could be unpredictable throughout the season.

Etienne is the RB24 in Dynasty ADP, going off the board at 81 overall. That number had been going down this off-season, but has started to tick back up with the recent hype around his role. The DLF Expert Rankings are much lower on him, putting him down at 113 overall and 34th amongst running backs. Notably, he is still the highest-ranked Jaguars running back. Bigsby comes in at RB37, and Tuten is down at RB47. 

Etienne is coming off the worst healthy season of his career. He was the RB35 in scoring and only scored two total touchdowns. Tank Bigsby finished in about the same exact spot, but had more rushing attempts. For Etienne to pay off his ADP, he’ll need to command more than 50% of the backfield touches from this team. Luckily, we know touchdown regression is a spot where he can bounce back this season. Usually when we speak about TD regression, we are talking about players who are going to score fewer than the previous year, but it works the other way as well. Etienne didn’t find the end zone much, but he had scored 12 the previous year. I expect him to finish somewhere in the middle of those two numbers, as he’ll continue to lose goal-line snaps to Bigsby and Tuten. Regardless, Etienne is the most talented back on this roster, he just needs to stay healthy and beat out Bigsby, Tuten, and Allen for touches in training camp. 

DYNASTY LANDSCAPE FUSION: MATT HARMON - NFC NORTH

Welcome to the Dynasty Landscape Fusion series – bringing you eight unique interview-style articles, providing a dynasty overview of each NFL team and division, through an innovative collaboration with an array of talented content creators in the dynasty community.

Kicking off the series, I’m delighted to be joined by Matt Harmon – the legend behind the fantastic Reception Perception website, in addition to the excellent content he produces as a football writer and analyst for Yahoo Sports and Yahoo Fantasy.

We’ll be reviewing the dynasty landscape of the NFC North – a division which produced three playoff teams in 2024 (Lions, Vikings, Packers) and the team with arguably the most offensive hype this off-season (Bears).

Chicago Bears

Kev: We start with the Bears, a team enthused with the appointment of new head coach and former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson – spearheading a young, talented and exciting offensive group. One of the biggest winners of the off-season is sophomore quarterback Caleb Williams, with the upgraded coaching staff, additional receiving weapons and solid wide receiver room. Currently, Williams is the QB9 in superflex ADP, in a tier alongside Drake Maye, Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud. How do you view this tier, and what is your projection of Williams’ dynasty ranking moving forward?

Matt: This is a quarterback tier I want to take stabs in this season for redraft, and therefore, they’re all tantalizing dynasty propositions. I’ll note that Drake Maye really stands out as someone who could jump out of this group because of his rushing ability but Caleb Williams is another strong bet here. He didn’t come out of his rookie season with any positive advanced metrics, but that Bears offense was a historically toxic environment. I’m willing to give everyone attached to it a pass and a fresh start under Ben Johnson.

Kev: I’m with you on Maye, who was QB6 in rush yards per game (32.4) last year, but I also want to shine the torch for Williams who was QB8 (28.8 rush yards per game) and somehow managed zero rushing touchdowns on 489 total rushing yards. I’m betting Williams has a better 2025 than Maye, although a lot will be dependent on a more facilitative passing environment, in particular at wide receiver. What is your take on the Bears’ wide receiving core, and is there a player to target from the trio of Rome Odunze, DJ Moore and rookie Luther Burden?

Matt: Rome Odunze is the guy I’m targeting from the bunch. He was a tier one wide receiver prospect and his Reception Perception rookie year profile revealed he played fine in isolation, as part of a poisoned ecosystem. I want to bet on the upward trajectory here, especially since he’s an X-receiver archetype who can beat man coverage. I am willing to bet he is the WR1 in fantasy for the Bears this year, making him a strong candidate to increase his dynasty value in 2025. Also, this coaching staff is exactly the type of group I wanted to see Burden land when breaking him down pre-draft. He needs to be pushed and Johnson, alongside wide receivers coach Antwaan Randle-El, will be the guys to give him that and be demanding that he’s tight on the details.

Kev: I’m less excited about Odunze post-draft, with the addition of Burden, but I do think if Odunze is good enough it will be at the expense of Moore in 2025, and I agree Burden is in a strong situation longer-term to succeed. Also joining the crowded wide receiver room was Colston Loveland, the first tight end off the board in the 2025 NFL Draft and many thought a better landing spot with the Bears than his rookie rival Tyler Warren landing with the Colts. Should the landing spots of Loveland and Warren change their post-draft ranking, and which player is your preference in dynasty?

Matt: I’d probably prefer Loveland in dynasty just slightly over Warren but I don’t feel a strong lean one way or another. I’m betting Johnson is a hit and develops a strong ecosystem with Caleb Williams under center in the long term. I don’t have that same confidence with anything happening in Indianapolis right now. The Bears and Colts both have sneaky crowded target trees, so there is no tie-breaker there. Overall, Loveland is the type of every-down tight end that I like to bet on in dynasty because there won’t be situations where he needs to leave the field. It’s a close call but I’d give a slight edge to Loveland based on the ecosystem hope and the preference for his tight end archetype.

Detroit Lions